Should You Sell Now
Wednesday, September 21, 2022
Even with muted demand due to the higher mortgage
rate environment, the muted supply of available homes has allowed the
The San Diego County housing market will continue to line up slightly in favor of sellers.
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A “Normal” Market - The insane pace of the housing market has ended, and the instant marketplace has shifted to a much more regular, typical speed for this time of year.
Everyone seemingly has an opinion when it comes to the housing market. Forget economic models, data, charts, and statistics. Most believe that prices must correct since values have soared to ridiculous heights, and mortgage rates have skyrocketed to their highest level since 2008. Yet, this kind of logic ignores facts. There is still a crucial missing ingredient in housing: not enough homes. There is an absurd lack of homes available to purchase. Due to a lack of supply, the housing market continues to line up in favor of sellers.
The Expected Market Time (the time between hammering in the FOR-SALE sign to opening escrow) reveals the actual speed of the market. It is based upon supply and demand, the number of available homes to purchase, and the number of buyers in the marketplace writing offers. The inventory is at 4,407 today, not quite as low as last year’s 2,907 homes, the lowest start to September since tracking began ten years ago, but well-off averages before COVID. The 3-year average (2017 to 2019) was 7,080, a mind-blowing 61% higher, or 2,673 more than today. And the inventory peaked at the start of August and will now drop for the rest of the year. Demand (last 30-days of pending sales activity) is at 2,201, the lowest level to start September since tracking began in 2012 and 52% less than last year. There were 853 additional pending sales last year. Current demand is off by 28% compared to the 3-year average before COVID of 3,054. Much higher rates have impacted demand.
In pairing low supply with low demand, the San Diego County housing market lines up slightly
in favor of sellers. The Expected Market Time is 60 days, a Slight Seller’s Market (between 60 and 90 days). It had improved since the end of July when it was 67 days. Yet, it is much slower than the 18-day level reached in mid-March.